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November 05 巴菲特收购BNI铁路公司昨天, 巴菲特旗下的Berkshire Hathaway投资公司宣布以100美元每股的价格收购Burlington Northern Santa Fe铁路公司. 此交易是巴菲特迄今为止最大的一笔投资, 总价值340亿美元, 即使算上巴菲特原本持有的22%股份, Berkshire还要支付260亿美元的股票和现金. 把BNI这么大的公司私有化, 估计也只有股神才会这么做. 简单比较一下: 大型仓储超市Costco市值是260亿美元, Dell电脑280亿美元, 新浪网只有20亿美元. 也就是说老巴这次付出的成本足够全额收购Costco/Dell或者十几个新浪, 而且他手头还能剩下200亿美元左右保证公司运营. 这充分体现在经济危机的时候, Cash is the king(有钱的是大爷).
收购一家铁路公司非常符合股神的投资风格, 就像他投资的饮料公司 糖果公司和家具公司一样, BNI的盈利模式非常清晰明了. 火车每天拉着煤炭汽车农产品和家用电器四处跑跑赚些跑腿费. 最近经济这么差, 铁路公司的生意也不怎么样, 巴菲特仗着有钱就趁机把BNI全盘拿下. 唯一让人稍有担心的是美国铁路系统实在太烂, 基本上没有中长途客运火车, 拉货的火车跑的比牛车还慢, 跟日本欧洲和中国的铁路系统实在相差太远, 将来系统升级需要的投资也是不少的数目, 很难预计什么时候能把这么大的投资成本收回来. 不过, 就像Buffett说的, 以当前的原油价格来看, 铁路运输比公路运输更有竞争力, 而且火车的污染也比卡车小得多, 对环境保护有利. 所以, 铁路在美国交通中的比例会稳步提高. 既然巴菲特又出手了, 是不是我们普通投资者也该买一些了? 唉, 我要知道答案就好了 :) 不过, 我们可以回头看看半年前的股市. 3月份的时候标准普尔500指数一度跌到666点. 2008年底到2009年初的情况是: 高盛这样的公司到要从巴菲特那以10%的年利率借款50亿美元, 而且附带债转股担保; Tiffany的股票一年内下跌70%多, 也沦落倒以10%的利息向股神借款2.5亿美元; 纽约时报公司向世界第二富豪Carlos Slim(仅次于Warren Buffett)贷款2.5亿美元, 利率14%并附带债转股授权... ... 短短六个月之后, S&P500浮动在1000点附近, 上升50%, 而前面提到这几家公司的股票暴涨100%到300%之间. 那时候真的是担心天塌下来云彩落地啊! 好在最坏的事情没有发生, 估计在这次经济危机周期里也不会发生了, 大家不会担心Goldman Sachs, Tiffany或New York Times撑不过2010年. 如果明天股市开盘是666点, 咱买, 一定买! 开888点都买! 可惜现在是1000点, 我打算闭着眼睛每月买一点, 然后静待888点再次出现. May 05 新基金和重开放的基金Dodge & Cox 由于最近股票市场的大幅波动, 著名的基金管理公司Dodge & Cox认为现在是个适当的时机推出他们新基金Dodge & Cox Global Stock (DODWX). 顾名思义, 这只基金将投资于全球的股票, 鉴于Dodge & Cox一贯坚持的价值投资理念(可惜这个词已经国内基金公司毁了一千遍), 它将专著于美国西欧和日本等发达市场大型公司(large cap)的股票. 其实DODWX也不算100%的新基金, 因为Dodge & Cox本来就提供分别专著于美国上市的大公司和其它发达国家大公司的两个基金, Dodge & Cox Stock (DODGX)和Dodge & Cox International (DODFX), 所以它更像是后两者的结合体. 作为一家在业内很有声望的基金管理公司, Dodge & Cox在它近80年的历史中只管理过三只股票基金和一只债券基金, 数目少得难以置信. 而且它们的经营业绩同样令人难以置信: Stock Fund过去15年的平均回报率排名top 1%; International Fund在它仅有的5年历史中排名top 2%. 很自然, 这两只基金同时名列美国最大基金前十五名. 所以, 如果觉得完全投资Index过于单调, 想买一些非指数基金的话, Dodge & Cox这样的公司最值得信赖. 其实不光是新发行Global基金, 以前DODBX和DODGX都认为自己规模太大(几百亿美元), 一直不允许新用户申购, 也幸亏subprime引起股市动荡才重新开放申购. Royce Funds 这家公司的特点是专著于小公司的股票, 鉴于small cap公司的市值小, 这类基金在规模达到10亿美元之后的一般都是closed to new investor, 因为基金经理很难把太多的钱高质量的花出去. 2008年年初以来, Royce Low-Priced Stock (RYLPX), Royce Micro-Cap (RYOTX)和Royce Opportunity (RYOFX)都已经重新开放认购. 当然, 投资small cap的基金有很多, Royce Funds只是Stone比较喜欢的公司而已.
International Small Cap Funds
除了上面提到的两家公司外, 还有两个基金值得一提的是Third Avenue International Value (TAVIX)和Oakmark International Small Cap (OAKEX). 它们都是投资于非美国市场的小公司, 也都是今年年初的时候重新开放的. 这类基金的数目比domestic small cap funds少, 业绩优秀的都让投资者挤破头. 一年前, Stone搜索这类基金的4星或5星的no load funds, 结果无一例外的closed to new investor. 所以, 在这把这两个还不错的单独列出来一下. 话又说回来, 上面也提到了, 这些基金之所以重新开放, 原因很简单: 就是业绩不好受到赎回压力, 他们想得到新资金来源. 对我们来说, 最好的办法自然是等到市场降到最低之后去买这些基金. 虽然这个比买彩票中大奖概率高不少, 但做起来还是很困难. Stone上周六晚上在阳台上夜观天象, 发现南边的火星受到月亮的强力影响, 西边的祥云成鹅毛状, 东边的天狼座和狮子座角力不分胜负, 北方大熊座第三颗星亮度开始减弱... ...
Stone掐指一算认为, S&P 500指数自去年高点1550跌至三月份1280左右之后, 反弹到1400的势头过猛, 应该在下次月亮盈亏转换中有较大幅度回调, 能否跌破1300点还很难说, 待被冻感冒的Stone病好了观观天象再做预测.
Disclosure: Among the funds mentioned above, the author holds DODGX and DODFX. June 25 Blackstone上市这次要给Steve Schwarzman做广告了，谁让他公司起名叫黒石呢，搞得我还以为这位身价近百亿的华尔街大亨是Stone的远房亲戚。不过，话又说回来，叫“黒石”总比叫“黑市”好听多了。 周五Blackstone上市是2002年以来国模最大的IPO，共募集资金41亿美元，公司总市值高达350亿美元以上。它引人注目的另一个原因，黑石并不是一家普通的公司，它从事的是神秘的私募集金（Private Equity）行业。私募基金就像电影Pretty Woman中的理查德.基尔，他们自己出30%的钱，借70%的钱，把一家公司买过来，包装一下再拆分成几块卖出去。而那所谓的“自己出30%的钱”也不是管理层口袋里出，而是别人交给公司管理的，整个deal的过程无论盈亏，管理层都要抽取1%~2%/年的管理费，其中盈利部分要再提成20%。这不说是空手套白狼，至少也是一本万利，Steve Schwarzman被财富杂志称为King of Wall Street或the King of Dealmaker，个人持股黑石23%的股票，以上周五的收盘价计算，身价近百亿美元。
不过说实话，这帮资本家中的资本家其实并不创造什么价值，反而是破坏性的，他们做常干的事情就是重组、关闭工厂、裁员、消减工资福利等，然后自己挣大钱。有报道说Steve Schwarzman的家庭厨师经常一个周末的食品采购花销就高达3000美元，而Schwarzman在Palm Beach的家中只有他和他老婆两个人。如果说我们八卦这些是评论人家私人生活，那Private Equity公司在税收方面享受的特别优惠就是对普通纳税人的不公了。根据布什政府2001年通过的减税方案，私募基金收取管理费不算作income（税率最高可达35%），而是属于capital gains（税率只有15%）。New York Times报道，Blackstone在2007年第一季度的运营收入高达11亿美元，但纳税只有1400万美元，大概1.3%。这也就不奇怪为什么Schwarzman是坚定的共和党支持者了。就在Blackstone正式上市之前，几个民主党议员准备开会讨论私募基金的税率问题，那法律都生效了好几年了，以前都假装不知道，现在黒石上市才说，八成也就是做作样子而已。 所以，聪明的做法就是买它的股票，别指望吃到肉，跟在后面喝口汤就行了，从Blackstone股票表现来看，无数的投资者也的确是这么做的。更最聪明的做法就像中国政府一样，一口气拿出31亿美元来买了黒石9.7%的股份，短短两个月这笔投资已经价值40多亿美元，比买美国T-bill回报高多了（据说这事是梁锦松促成的）。当然，最聪明的做法就是咱们成立一家私募基金，把中国那12000亿美元外汇储备拿过来投资，每年光管理费就收180亿刀啊，公司名称就叫ExtremelyBlackStone吧。 May 24 买机票省钱Tip可能大部分同志们都有这种经历: 在各个旅游网站上查了很久, 好不容易下定决心定了机票, 几天之后价格竟然更低了, 让人很是郁闷. 以至于下次定机票的时候, 犹犹豫豫不知道什么时候出手(当然, 对Queen of Shopping来说, 这可能不是问题 :) 其实, 各大航空公司对于在自己网站上售出的机票, 在价格进一步变化之后, 都可以补偿差价, 这也算是鼓励顾客在他们网站上订票的优惠措施吧. 但一般这种机会时间都很短, 正常情况下, 人们在买过机票之后, 不太会天天去查价格. 所以就有人创立了Yapta(压迫它)这个网站.  February 27 [update]中国打个喷嚏, 全世界就感冒哇, 哈! WKao!! 这个不八实在不行了, 虽然本洞已经没有当年"苹果开个新品发布会, 我blog一小时后就跟进的劲头", 至少俺也要在这件historical event上留个小名.
历史上头一次, 头一次, 上海股市的一次震荡撼动了包括美国在内的全球股市. 春节过后的第二个交易日, 上证指数在前一天创下3040点的历史新纪录之后, 狂泻270点, 创下十年来的单日最大跌幅. 随后, 法兰克福DAX指数, 巴黎CAC指数, 伦敦FTSE指数应声下跌2.96%, 3.02%和2.31%. 开市最晚的纽约交易所, 其标准普尔500指数也毫不含糊的下跌3.47%, 创下911恐怖袭击以来的单日跌幅最高记录. 这一切起自东方明珠--上海, 这才是一个负责任的经济大国在世界上应该扮演的角色呢!
当然了, 吹牛也不能太过火. 这两年全球股市涨得一塌糊涂, 前两天格林斯潘还出来说经济增长必然放缓呢, 股市小跌一下也是应该的. 上海股市更像一个催化剂的作用, 感觉还是很爽.
上次本洞写上证指数, 最后还分三种情况做了几个预测和建议, 现在看来还挺准的, 哈哈. 为了避免破坏名誉, 这次俺就不唧歪了, 只写一下我自己下一步干啥. 早就说过了, 自从把钱转进broker账户之后, 那就不是俺的了, 要跌要涨, 敬请自便. 不管它以前慢慢多了千八百, 还是今天瞬间少了一两百, 我都无能为力----其实是没啥可干的, 我能干啥呀? 再转点闲钱进去买呗. 因为我确信我做不到段永平那样靠股票把资产翻番, 既没那个智商, 也没那个实力. 而且, 即使翻了也不过是从家财十块, 变成家财二十块.
我们的目标是 ---- 没有蛀牙!! 噢, 错了, 再来一次. 我们的目标是 ---- 回报超过saving account!
Stone.cn (上海发起的全球股市黑色星期二留名)
update:
从星期二的微型恐慌, 到这一个礼拜, 从日本香港, 到欧洲美国, 跌的还真不含糊, 也创下911以来的周记录了. 如果说本洞写上边这博的时候还更多的是新鲜和好奇的话, 现在似乎还真看到点小熊熊的狰狞面目了, 心慌慌啊 :) 看来我得把已转进去的cash在账户里多hold会儿, 等等再开始买入. February 05 上证指数 - Investment Episode X前几天眼看着上证指数就要冲破3000点大关了, Stone就想写篇文章骂一骂, 什么大起大落是典型的新兴市场作风啦, 泡沫化已经非常明显之类的, 提醒广大股民警惕. 结果在一亩二分地发刊前几天, 不慎走漏了消息, 造成股市巨幅大振荡. 1月31日, 上证指数下跌144.23点, 2月2日, 再跌112.22点. 怪不得人说中国市场不是牛市也不是熊市, 而是"政策市". 领导一发话, 股市马上随风而动, 搞的我都不好意思再唱衰股市了. 看来以后我再发表意见还真得小心.
Stone例行吹牛结束. 正文:
1月下旬, 苏宁电器收盘在70元以上, 市值达500亿元, 盖过Circuit City, 仅次于Best Buy.
最后, 刚上市没多久的中国人寿就更不用说了, 直接坐上世界第一大保险公司的王座.
... ...
这就是过去两年NB的无法形容的中国股市, 短短18月时间, 从2005年6月的不足1000点一路高歌猛进到不久前的2994点, 整整200%涨幅. 沪市平均市盈率(P/E)达40.2倍. "让老百姓分享中国经济发展成果", "股市的黄金十年才刚刚开始", "2008北京奥运之前股市不会跌"... ... 各种言论开始充斥媒体, 不但老股民们又兴奋起来, 新股民也蜂拥而至, 还出了个新名词 -- "基民".
有一个故事说, 一个勘探石油的家伙死后想进天堂, St. Peter在天堂门口拦住他: "你虽然有资格进入天堂, 但留给挖石油的住的地方已经爆满了(哎呀, Bush啊), 我无法把你安插进去." 这位听完, 想了一下, 提出一个请求: 我就进去跟那些住里面的石油业者说一句话. 圣·彼得觉得这没什么, 就答应了. 于是他对着天堂里大喊一声:"地狱里发现石油了!" 话音刚落, 天堂大门顿开, 里面所有人都疯狂冲向了地狱. St. Peter吃惊之余请这一位进天堂, 但他迟疑了一会儿说: "还是算了, 我想我还是跟那些人一起到地狱去吧, 传言说不定是真的呢!"
套用一个新词, 这就是"搏傻", 在大牛市里面失去理智, 盲目追高的表现. 这类站在那大喊地狱发现石油的人物, 有一个代表就是复旦某谢教授. 不知为何, 他的文章总被放在财经首页最显眼的地方, 让我总忍不住看一下, 结果每次都有用头撞墙的欲望. 不是说现在进股市就是进地狱, 但这么大涨之后已经把将来5~10年的发展提前透支了不少, 剩下的收益已经有限, 全是风险. 据统计, 从去年12月下旬至今年1月底, 国内股市新开户人数达375万, 这就是300多万个家庭啊, 这些人把攒的多年的血汗钱放进股市, 就上一周这两下, 估计还能赚钱的就很少了. 不敢说现在庄家到底还有多大操控能量, 但这些人赚钱肯定还是不择手段. 虽然经过股改, 还有相当多的公司流通股比例很小. 比如工商银行在进行世界史上最大的IPO之后, 才发行了区区2.7%的股份, 但炒作这2.7%的股份就可以控制上万亿的市值, 进而带动上证指数变化. 如果不是这段时间中外经济学家吴敬琏 罗杰斯, 人大副委员长成思危等出来给股市降温, 还真有可能直冲5000点呢, 那样新入场的股民 基民损失就很难想象了.
因此, 从证监会的角度来说, 对于中国股市只能是按部就班的完善和发展: 开放"做空"机制, 股市无论上升下降都有人能赚到钱, 从而使股票价格更趋向于真实价值; 继续全流通改革, 避免工商银行 中国银行这样的大盘股再被杠杆方式操纵; 进一步开放金融市场, 让包括外资在内的资金入市, 提高股票市场的竞争和透明度, 以减少幕后联手炒作; 恢复股票获益税收, 通过对长期持有获益和短期炒作获益的税率设定不同, 鼓励长期投资. 不过, 以上这些措施除了最后一条以外, 对中小投资者来说都不是什么好消息. 如果不是自认特别NB的话, 在上述背景下, 还是减少短期操作为妙.
从我们自身来讲, 就要分几种情况了. 身处国内的, 如果在去年或更早就已经入市了, 那么恭喜了, 总体50%到100%的收益应该已经在手了, 现在涨跌10%的其实没什么大不了的, 完全不用着急上火. 长远来看, 你我都坚定的相信国内市场的前途, 所以坚定长期持有吧. 如果才入市没多久, 到底是补仓还是撤资, 什么时候动作, 就得花一翻心思了. Stone个人觉得两三年内股市就这么晃荡, 不可能再有什么暴涨, 如果不想费那么大劲当股民的话, 还是找机会抽身出来. 等以后有合适的机会再说, 省得天天看着大盘心烦, 咱的心情也很值钱啊. 对于在国外的, 还是老老实实的按照标准投资比例来吧, 新兴市场所占比重控制在15%以下. 对于特信任中国市场的(比如我)可以把新兴市场比例全放在中国. 至于投资方式, 既可以在美国购买投资香港国企股的基金, 比如我当年推荐过MCHFX, 也可以在国内开个招商银行理财账户, 直接进入国内市场. 折腾完了之后就别再想它了, 我九成斗不过巴菲特, 听天由命收益最好.
January 24 $30 from federal tax refund如果你这两年在美国用手机的话, 今年联邦税就可以多退$30 :)
我想大家都对手机plan税率之高有深刻的印象, 明明是$39.99的plan, 加上税就变成快$50了. 2006年的时候法庭裁决其中的"美西战争税"不合理, 就是支持八百年前美国和西班牙那场战争的, 当年只有富人有电话, 所以就把这个战争税加到里面了, 一直都没取消. 为了补偿人们受伤的心灵, IRS还要把2003年2月28日之后收的美西战争税退还. 因为去年法庭就是根据某某法律裁决的, 只退三年, 前面的就算给资本主义做贡献了. 不过, 对我们这种才来美国几年的同志们还是挺合理的 :)
IRS给出的详细说明在这里. 我胡乱总结一下, 错了不要怪我.
得到这项退税的条件是什么?
你如果在2003年2月28日到2006年8月1日之间使用座机或者手机的"长途电话plan"或者"本地加长途捆绑plan", 都可以得到这项tax refund. 对我们来说, 手机plan就是一个捆绑本地和长途的plan, 符合要求.
退税金额是多少?
政府给算出来个平均值是$30, 如果你觉得自己在这上面缴税比较多的话, 也可以把这三年的电话账单全找出来, 按照政府的方法算一下. 不过, 像我们这样的还是别费劲了.
如果得到这项退税?
如果你就要平均值$30的话, 在1040NR和1040NR EZ表格上都有一行, "Credit for federal telephone excise tax paid", 就是这个了. 如果要用所有的账单算出来一个精确值的话, 还要附上另外一个表格.
政府今年为这项退税专门准备了一百亿美元! 每人三十刀啊, 同志们赶快行动吧.
P.S. 至于手机family plan, 似乎交的税不是single plan的两倍. 因此, 如果是couple共同添税表, 政府给退$40刀. 但像我们大部分人是朋友们办family plan, 都单独添税表, 好象没什么明确规定. 哪位给打听一下? November 24 MasterCard广告时间:
信用卡这种鼓励贷款, 利息超高(~20%)的东西, 完全应该是只属于"堕落的资本主义社会"或者"万恶的旧社会"的东西, 当年地主给贫农放利滚利的高利贷也不过如此. 现如今, 在美女诱惑下, 信用卡透支在社会主义中国也开始流行起来. 估计这种趋势不可避免了, 那至少也了解一下信用卡的幕后黑手吧.
翻看一下信用卡的背面, 每张后面都有各式各样的小图标, 除了最熟悉的VISA和MasterCard之外, 还有不少其他的标志, 每一个都浸透着穷苦大众的血汗(估计Bill Gates不会欠信用卡钱吧?). 在Stone正式开始显摆之前, 先故意露怯一下, 给读者造成谦虚的假象: 我以前一直以为Maestro就是Master的西班牙语拼法呢, 刚才用金山词霸查了一下才知道, 原来Maestro也是英文, 是艺术大师 指挥家的意思. 大家都很熟悉的VISA和MasterCard处于食物链的最顶层. MasterCard最初由United California Bank, Wells Fargo等几个地处加州的银行创立, 主要目的是和Bank of America的VISA竞争, 后来它们都独立出来发展成覆盖全球的金融网络. 历史上它们不以赢利为主要目的, 而更像松散联盟组织, 换一种说法就是赚的钱都被大股东瓜分干净了, 小股东只负责交会费. 因为VISA和MasterCard的主要股东都是欧美的那几个大银行, 形成垄断的趋势越来越严重. 近些年来, 无论是商家还是银行都开始对两大组织发起诉讼, VISA和MasterCard除了向以Walmart为首的零售商赔款几十亿美元之外, 最近还不得不允许旗下的银行自由参与到American Express, Discover等竞争对手的网络中去. 将来类似的反垄断诉讼还可能更多, 精明的寡头们马上提出把VISA和MasterCard上市变成公众公司, 这样赚了钱大家分, 赔了钱有股市顶着. 不过, 这个世界总是坏人吃香(Girls are always crazy about bad boys), 2006年5月寡头们像做了亏心事一般把MasterCard以$39每股的价格放在纽约证券交易所之后, 现在股价已经飚到100美元以上了, 让大股东们又狠赚一笔. 但说到底VISA和MasterCard只是信用卡联盟品牌, 背后真正处理这些交易的是遍布全球各个交易处理公司. 比如美国信用卡/储蓄卡背后常见的"STAR标志", 就说明这张卡可以通过它的网络处理. STAR是美国最大的交易网络, 覆盖5700家金融机构和25万台ATM机, 它跟VISA和MasterCard都有很广泛的合作. 其他主要的交易处理公司还有VISA旗下的Interlink, 以及由众多Credit Union组成的Co-op等. 这些公司也主要分成两派, 偏向VISA阵营的统一标识是"PLUS", 偏向MasterCard阵营的统一标识是"Cirrus". 因此在银行卡背后, 尤其是debit卡背后经常有三个以上标志: 首先标明是VISA还是Master, 然后是适用于哪个交易处理组织(PLUS或Cirrus), 最后还写上Interlink或Co-op等具体的交易处理公司. 各大银行都主推信用卡, 因为不但可以鼓励消费, 而且贷款利率极高, 这样从消费者那里赚得更多. 另外, 信用卡交易手续费也比较高, 一般在2%到2.5%之间, 商家给银行贡献更多利润. 基于同样原因, 有相当多的消费者和商家更偏爱不能透支Debit卡(或称Check卡), VISA和MasterCard组织通过另外的网络专门处理这类交易, 只收取少量的固定费用. VISA旗下的叫做VISA Debit, 没有专门的标志; MasterCard旗下处理Debit业务的就是我们常见的Maestro. 这样就把卡背后搞得更凌乱不堪了. 美国常见的另外两大信用卡组织是American Express和Discover. 关于Amex最神的是它的黑卡, 这个年费$2500的高档信用卡只发邀请给超级有钱的帅哥美女, 这张卡不但包括了很多顶级俱乐部的会员身份, 持卡人还享有专门的秘书和旅行代办服务. Amex有意保持黑卡的神秘性, 再加上黑卡持卡人很少, 外界对这种卡的了解并不十分透彻. 不过, Amex透露用黑卡确实可以购买Bentley汽车(单价20万美元)和小型飞机等. 更复杂的服务还包括Amex帮助持卡人办婚礼, 从租教堂 设计服装 发送邀请卡, 到给参加婚礼的客人指路, 给旅馆房间的浴池加热水等, 全套负责; 再比如按持卡人的要求去死海边上取一些新鲜的死海泥回来; 更夸张的还有安排好莱坞明星黑卡持卡人跟某电视剧的导演见面, 推荐选角等. Amex唯一服务不周的地方是, 到现在他们都不肯给scorp主编发黑卡邀请. Discover卡的覆盖面比Amex还要小一些, 在VISA和MasterCard阴影之下经营的并不如意. 不过也正因为如此, 最近两年Discover跟中国银联和日本JCB签署联盟协议, 促进了根红苗正的社会主义银行网络UnionPay的发展. 再加上银联跟一些银行(比如CitiBank)单独签署的协议, 希望有一天UnionPay也能成为跟VISA Master并列的主要网络之一, 这样中国消费者被银行黑的钱至少不会因为一个小小的VISA标志就流到欧美银行的口袋里.
July 25 Investment Episode IX - 投资原则股票是天使, 历史数据证明股票市场提供最高的投资回报, 明显优于债券 房产 期货 储蓄和把钱藏鞋盒子里; 股票是魔鬼, 普通投资者总是在股市最高的时候投资买入, 跌到谷底的时候割肉退出. 下面这个故事来自Vanguard Diehards论坛, 算是一个很典型的例子:
I am 27 years old and just recently decided to buy into the market in a lump sum in a taxable account ... on May 10, 2006, I jumped right in with about 35K. I couldn't have picked a worse time to buy in. Two months later I'm down $2,600 with no recovery in sight, and little confidence of any near term turnaround. So last Friday, I moved everything to a money market account, and missed today's bounce. Now I'm convinced that I will always make the wrong investment decisions, and can't get the thought of knowing that I threw that money away out of my mind. What do I do now? Should I DCA money back in? Should I buy back in right now? Should I wait a few months and see how the market is performing? Should I cut my losses and abandon the market forever outside of my retirement accounts?
普通投资者总是在最高买入, 最低卖出. 类似这样的抱怨很常见, 原因是什么呢? 其实很简单, 股市就是有上有下的, 每个人都有赔钱的时候. 就跟做实验一样, 不work的反应多了去了, 如果每个都做成了, Science早就被我灌成个人文集了. 赔钱的投资者自然是高买低卖, 所以才有了这样的抱怨.
但这个看似合理的解释, 不能改变赔钱的事实. 更深层次的原因是什么? 六个月前, 我第一次报告我的portfolio的时候, 总体收益是4.7%. 今天的股指跟那个时候非常接近, 但我的收益变成了0.
去年7月底我开始逐步买入, 原则非常明确, 就是buy & hold, 历史证明长期投资最有保障. 虽然我每天至少看三次市场表现, 虽然我不断的去网站和论坛看各种消息和分析, 但无论涨跌, 我始终没碰过我持有的基金. 终于在2月份的时候, 我实在忍不住诱惑, 介入一只剧烈变动的热门股票, 因为长久来看它可能取得成倍的回报, 比我那些蜗牛爬一样的基金"有钱途"多了. 当然, 鉴于Science还不是我的个人文集, 这只股票也大踏步奔向南方.
也许是因为吃了点小亏, 也许是因为新鲜感过去了, 我忽然发现, 这虽然是本系列的第九篇文章, 但今天距离我上次唧歪Finance已经过去六个月了, 现在我平均一天只看一次大盘表现. 还是有点夸张, 但这是非常好的迹象, 因为投资股市并不需要什么智慧. 股市的投资回报率里面已经包括了所有的下跌 崩盘和股灾, 投资者并不需要在熊市前夜"机智的"退出来. 尝试这样做的后果往往是适得其反, 即使有股神Buffett之类的特例, 但一般人又不打算在76岁的时候捐370亿美元给比尔.盖茨, 所以股市8%~10%的平均收益率就足够了.
所以, Stone很久之前就学会, 但到现在还没掌握的投资秘诀是: 1. 明确投资的目标; 2. 制定投资分配比例; 3. 努力干活, 挣钱养家. 长期投资, 积沙成塔; 4. 根据变化(主要是个人年龄), 调整投资分配.
最开始的故事中也提到了, 投资的两种方式是Lump Sum和DCA(Dollar Cost Average). Lump Sum是指攒上一年半载的才买一次, DCA就是每月买一点. 关于两种方式熟优熟劣的讨论有很多, 其实根本无所谓. 最关键的, 不管股市高低, 照买不误. 高低都是相对的, 长期来讲没有任何差别. 更重要的, 哪怕你真的能beat the market, 就找个基金经理的工作, 拿别人的钱操作, 又赚钱又安全.
最后, 以另一个故事结束本篇: 说一个老太太在60年代的时候用1万美元购入一只基金. 在1987年股灾的时候, 大盘狂泻40%. 老太太给股票经纪人打电话问问自己的基金怎么样了. 经纪人很伤心的告诉她, 由于股市崩盘, 她的账户只值十五万美元了.
March 14 Investment Episode VIII - 耐心是一种美德In investing, patience is a virtue.
Normally, when a guy say something like that, it means he is losing money. Right, partly. Looking at the long hike of S&P 500 Index in recent months, I shouldn't lose money on any funds, if I followed everything I talked about in Stone 洞穴's Finance Category. Consequently, the problem is I did something I shouldn't have done.
When one feels comfortable in investing and ready to touch some volatile stocks, think twice, three or four times.
After I "showed off" last time about my portfolio of mutual funds, I loaded 100 shares of Sirius Satellite Radio, which is a under $10 stock, high volatility. There were a lot of positive aspects of this company. And I was prepared to have it run down in short term. But it still well dispointed me by flopping 22% in one and half months. The stock of a company without positive cash flow has nothing to predict. I, like a lot of investors, thought I saw something others don't on newspaper or internet. Apparently not clever.
It's only a minor portion in my portfolio. And I believe it will bounce back in long term. But I regarded it as a lesson for me on how to manage money. Save, diversify, hold and rebalance. The discipline is easy. But just difficult to stick to it.
Investing in mutual funds is not fun or exciting as 'incisively' picking a good stock. Managing money is not about fun, either. So I write it down to remind myself  January 20 Stocks Plummet很久没写我的Investment系列了, 因为知道的就那么多, 而且我的策略是buy & hold, 说直白一点就是"买了放在床底下, 什么都不干", 也没什么素材可说.
自从新年美联储暗示将停止升息以来, 我每天看着手里基金总值一点点往上涨也挺happy的. 昨天可能是为了庆祝冥王星探测器升空, 一下涨二十多刀, 正准备在blog写一篇夸耀一下自己的投资策略呢. 今天就因为春运提价, "噗通", 又跌了近五十, 这个变化也太大了吧? 幸亏昨天没写.
记录一下:
 DOW JONES下跌213点, 近2%.
 标准普尔下降1.83%
前几天大盘涨的时候还一直盼着跌, 以便于加持一些我智慧的选择呢, 机会来了, 虽然不像当时想象的那样.
你说我是再等等它再低一点呢, 还是现在就补仓呢...
一哥们儿(Jim Wang)在blog定期讨论自己的net worth, 都上了纽约时报了, 我也应该开始学习一下:
分配比例:
US Large Cap: 30%
US Small Cap: 15%
US Bond: 30%
Foreign Large Cap: 15%
Other: 10%
平均持有时间: 4.7 months
增长率 on Jan. 20, 2006: ~ 4% (相应年利率: 10%) October 30 International Funds - Investment Episode VIIFor non-active trader, stocks/funds pick is not as important as diversity. A clever pick need wisdom, hard-work, and some luck; allocation only requires following simply rules.
Say, I have already had a reasonable fund portfolio (after stole some money from you) in all the categories I introduced in Episode IV. I probably would still feel pretty bad if Chinese Yuan rises another 2% or 5% compared to dollar. What can I do with that? Investment in internatiional funds!
If someone happen to own some shares of ING Russia A (LETRX), it would be 57% gain in this year. But I also knew that the stock market is extremely volatile in emerging countries like Russia. In 1998, one of the worst year, LETRX lost 83% of its value. Politics, economic policy, terrorism, and society could all be factors driving the market. And they're hard to predict.
So I don't feel like to bet on Russia, East Europe, Latin America, or Antarctica and a little worry about India (*#&^%$), China mainland (financial fraud) and China Taiwan (politics), too. But It looks OK to me to throw some money in West Europe, Japan, South Korean or HongKong when I build my portfolio.
My first international fund suggestion is Matthews China (MCHFX). I trust the economy of China in 100%. The future of Hang Seng Index (恒生指数), that contains China Mobile, Bank of China, Lenovo etc., will keep shining. It should also be 'cleaner' than ShangHai Stock Exchange. That's why I think HongKong is the best. By the way, so many beautiful girls there, Liang Yongqi, Chen Huilin, Zhang Baizhi ... ... They must have the ability to keep Hang Seng rising.
For Europe, companies like Bayer, Allianz, Novartis, Vodafone are good enough to me. Moreover, some Europe stock funds like Fidelity Europe Capital Appreciation (FECAX) and Mutual European Z (MEURX) only charge 1.15%/year for managing. I don't mind to pay that ratio to the managers, just in case America won't be the solo economic polar in the world sometime.
An easier method to give some exposure to international stock without thinking too much is to devote to allocated foreign stock fund, like Dodge & Cox International Stock (DODFX). The expense ratio is low. They focus on large companies from more than three countries. I think I can just trust them to play with my money in the world.
OK. Again, international funds are only complements to a well - established portfolio. I don't need to worry it too much now. If you have got enough money, try some funds I suggest. And tell me how much you lose next year.
September 29 Investment Eposode VI - Bond FundsThis time I will give specific recommendations on bond funds. But I will keep it at last. You don't expect me to give brilliant picks. But I think that may be easier to start with.
As mentioned in Episode V, all the asset allocation strategies, aggressive or conservative, have a stake of bonds. Bond funds are the mutual funds that mainly invest in bonds.
Because bonds usually have stable yield and low risk, and they often go the opposite direction of the stock market. They're useful for diversifying the portfolio.
Bonds are IOU, (not means I lOve yoU here :), issued by U.S. government, corporations, organizations, and foreign government. And they have some difference from stocks, such as rate, duration, and credit quality.
Rate
Bonds are debt of governments or companies. They promise to pay a set rate when issuing the debt. Different borrowers give various rates based on the duration of the bonds.
Duration
Duration is the time period between issue and mature of bonds. Normally, from similar issuers, the longer the duration is, the higher the rate is, just like what happens in Certificate of Deposit. But investors also trade bonds frequently before their maturity, hoping to get higher yield than the set rate.
Credit Quqlity
U.S. Treasury securities has the best credit rating, and typically pay the lowest interest. Standard & Poor and Moody's give credit rating to corporations based on their ability to repay. The scales are AAA, AA, A, BBB, BB, B, and below B. The bonds rated as BB or lower are called 'jund bond' and 'high yield bond' -- whichever you like. For example, both General Motor's and Ford Motor's debe have been rated into junk status recently.
Each bond fund has its own strategy: some like goverment bond, high rating bonds; some prefer junk bonds or high yield bonds. Under most situation, they mix with certain ratios. It always follow the rule of 'high risk, high return'.
Here are my recommendation on bond funds of high credit rating. Again, You don't expect me to give brilliant picks. I just think it may be easier to start with.
September 12 Investment Eposide V - PortfolioAsset Allocation
As we always said, never put all the eggs in one basket. The very rule applies to investment also. To reduce risk, all invetors tend to hold more than one single stock or other asset.
Asset allocation is an investment technique that aims to balance risk and create diversification in various categories, such as cash, certificate deposit, bond and stock. Different class has different level of returns and risk. Asset allocation is the best way to prevent major losses. In other word, it's more important than the individual stock selection.
There are many investing strategies, depended on one's risk tolerance and time frame (short term, mid term or long term investment). Generally speaking, stocks have better return in a long run but fluctuant at certain times; while bonds give moderate earning with lower risk.
Morningstar, an investment research firm , suggests possible asset allocations for three different kinds of investors: aggressive, conservative and moderate.
The aggressive strategy is for investors who has a long - term horizon, more than ten years away. They suggest, this kind of portfolio contains small amount of cash, 15% bonds, 55% large-cap stock, 17% small-cap stock and 13% foreign stock.
The moderate porfolio is for investors, looking at five to ten years later, who can bear a reasonable amount of risk. It consists of 15% cash, 35% bonds, 32% large-cap, 10% small-cap and 8% foreign stock.
If someone has a time frame less than five years or can't tolerate much risk. The conservative allocation, they suggest, comprises 60% cash, 25% bonds, 10% large-cap, 3% small-cap and 2% foreign stocks.
Personally, I'm just trying to build a diversified portfolio. But with the little amount of money I put in brokage account now, I'm far away from a well - established strategy yet. Anyway, these basic aspect of asset allocation are good to know.
A study of the U.S. Department of Labor showed that for every ten years delay of saving for retirement, you will have to save three times as mush each month to catch up. So, just do it.
Links:
August 30 Investment Episode IV - CategoriesAs a
beginner, it's a safe way to only put money in mutual fund. We can make
it even safer by diversifying our money in different fund categories.
Different funds have various focus on the market. The first rule is market capitalization. Based on sizes, the stocks are defined as big cap, mid cap and small cap, which correspond to above $10 billion, between $2 billion and $10 billion, and less than $2 billion. Famous companies such as MicroSoft, WalMart, and Fedex, all belong to big cap stocks. Historically, large cap stocks have slower growth and lower risk. Because these blue chips, which are well-established and financially-sound companies, could pay good dividends at both good and bad times. Their stocks' price won't change much in relatively short time. A common misconception is that the stock price stands for the capitalization size. That's different. Market cap equals to stock price times number of stock shares. For example, Walmart has stock price of $45/share is higher than that of MicroSoft, $27/share. But the market cap of the latter is much higher, $293 billion compared to $189 billion. The second rule is the investing strategy of mutual fund. Some basic categories are: Value Investment This kind of fund puts their money in companies they consider are temporarily undervalued. Growth Investment The fund managers seek the companies they believe are reasonably priced and have long term development opportunities. Blend/Core Investment Both value and growth are taken into account. Income Investment How much dividend is paid by the stock is the first consideration. Balanced/Allocation Investment Invest not only in stock market, but also in bond, treasury notes, as well as foreign securities. Actually, the strategies are always combined. So there are something like Large-Value, Mid-Growth, Small-Blend, etc. You can see the top performers in each categories on Yahoo! Finance. August 15 Investment Episode III - Why to start a Roth IRA nowI'm not interested in playing with stock or fund, even not sure whether I will stay in America after 4 years. Why do I need to open a Roth IRA account now?
I know you mean retirement is far from you. Why don't we look at an example first.
Say, I start to work at twenty - five year old and plan to retire at sixty. From now on, I put $4,000 into my Roth IRA account every year. And most probably, the average return is 8% annually in the future thirty - five years.
The good news is I will get 744K in 2040AD with only 140K 'real' investment ($4,000 x 35). The bad news is we need to count the inflation, which is normally 3% per year. So one dollar now equals to $2.8 (1 x 1.03 ^ 35) in year 2040. It will make my 744K worth 264.8K dollars correspond to today's money. I'm a healthy and strong boy like you are, who not likely to die before eighty years old. The total money I can use every year between my sixty to eighty is $13,200 (264.8K / 20).
This number is a bit small, isn't it. What if I could live longer than 80?? Retirement saving is not as far as we thought!
Of course, we didn't count the 401k retirement plan. The matching up part from your company is the best for retirement saving. But other than that part of 401k, Roth IRA is better. The reasons:
1. Tax efficiency.
2. Less withdraw restrictions comparing to 401k and regular IRA
3. More investment choices comparing to 401k
4. Did I mentioned a F1 student can open a Roth IRA account?
P.S. I just updated Investment Episode I about choosing a broker
 P.P.S If you want to read more about stock funds, please go to Finance tag. August 08 Investment Episode II.2There is more
about mutual funds. But before that, just go over some terms really
fast. I didn't read much and never practise, so don't trust me. Option There is no real stock-transfer in the option trade. Basically, the writer(seller or buyer) names a price of a certain stock for a time period in the future. If the trade is executed, he will have to sell or buy stocks at that time at that price, no matter what the real price is. Also, he could sell the contract before the date at a new price. But the contract itself doesn't change. Normally, buyer and seller just pay the price difference. If the buyer or seller does want the stock, some kind of broker can help. Why do I stay away from option? In the whole progress, I have to pay the premium for buying the contract and sometimes the commission fee for buying stocks to cover the contract. The profit is less than just trading the stock. But why do so many people like option? Because if you are really lucky, you can make huge profit with relatively small amount of money. Of course, the loss can be more than 100% of your asset when bad luck comes. Margin When you want to make a bigger transaction, the broker lends you some money -- not for free. It is risky. But at least, chance of negative account balance is less than playing with option. ETF Exchange-traded fund is like a index fund. As same time it is traded as a stock, while the index fund only has a fixed price everyday. Although the price of ETF won't go far away from the real net value, either. Trading as a stock means commission fees. So no - load index fund is better when you only put $500 in it. The advantage of ETF is that its maintenance fee is lower. It pays in a long run. Also, the index fund has to buy every share investors redeem and sell all shares investors want. This progress generates tax charges for the fund, which belongs to all investors. As a result, everyone losts money because of all trades. Reversely, because ETF is traded between investors, no extra charge for ETF itself. The more one investor trade, the more commission fee he pays. Fair for everyone. July 29 Investment - Episode II.1A few terms in investmentMutual fund
A mutual fund is a investment company that controls the money from other people, investing in stocks, bond and other securities. Different companies have various strategies, focuses and risks.
The managers of these companies are supposed to very intelligent. So we 'could' make profit by buying mutual fund, even though the clever guys get high salary no matter how much money the company makes. Sorry, I don't say mutual fund is not good. Actually, I strongly recommend it.
Other terms need to be mentioned here are Load and Operating Fee. 'Sales load' is like the commission fee paid to the broker. It's different from the management fee or operating fee which is paid to the mutual fund itself. Sometimes when you hold a mutual fund for a certain time period, the load can be waived, which means the company will help you to pay your broker. However, the operating fee will always be there. The ratios are different. So does the result of your earning, which we will see in a example below.
Say, if you put $5,000 in a mutual fund with 10% gain per year before expenses. Holding it for twenty years, you will get $24,862 with a 1.5% annual operating fee. When it goes down to 0.5%, you will get $30,428 instead. That's about 20% difference. Larger than you thought, isn't it.
That seems enough for today. At last, do you need some suggestions for specific fund? My answer: just go to index fund. For example, Standard & Poor 500 index fund, standing for 500 well-known companies in both NYSE and Nasdaq, is the safest choice for beginners. The average earning of S&P 500 is 11% in the past 30 years. Here are some no-load index funds you can choose from. My second suggestion is to go to MorningStar to look for the performance and rating of individual fund, which I don't know much about :)
To be continued again. :) July 26 Stock and mutual fund - Episode IStock and mutual fund. OK. Let's say 'Investment'.Normally, people don't consider $500 an investment. But that's how I play with it. For one thing, I don't have enough courage to try big; for another, my saving is no more than that.
 The positive side is that you can't lose much with that amount money. And also, you get the basic skill for the time you plan to put $5,000 in the market. Just share some experience.
Open an accountThe first thing is what kind of brokerage account to choose and how to open it. The most common account is a cash account. You put money in it and you buy stocks/funds. But before that, there are something we need to consider: first, you will be charged commission fees for every trade and maintenance fee for every quarter. Second, You will worry about tax filling every year because you have stocks.
That's too complicated, isn't it? A Roth IRA (a kind of retirement plan) account doesn't have so much trouble. However, if you want to go back to China shortly after you graduate. Don't use this account. Penaty applies, when you withdraw money from Roth IRA under some circumstance.
I open my account at www.Etrade.com. It isn't the cheapest one, but good enough for beginners. Later, I found www.scottrade.com is even cheaper. I didn't read their policy thoroughly. Anyway, some people say it's good.
OK. Time to invest.hehe. Time to have a rest.
to be continued...
Update on Aug 14
After two more weeks learning, I found that Scottrade is only good for stocks trade with a low commission fee. But for mutual fund -- usually the common choice for beginners and retirement saving -- Firstrade.com is the best. It offers more than 8, 000 kinds of mutual fund with no transction fee charged (as mentioned in Investment Episode II.1, there still could be "load", charged by the mutual fund management company). Moreover, firstrade is a small company owned by Chinese, you can call their customer service in our native language! The only draw back is the account setup progress, which requires mailing signature documents to them.
As for eTrade.com, it's just so so. It has fast account setup, a powerful website, good reputation (who cares?) and a best S&P index fund. But I am not happy with it charges $24.95 for the mutual fund transaction related to Vanguard and Fidelity. So I'm also considering to set up a second account at Firstrade.com.
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